A machine learning framework for predicting and resolving complex tactical air traffic events using historical data

Abstract

One of the key functions of Air Traffic Management (ATM) is to balance airspace capacity and demand. Despite measures that are taken during the strategic and pre-tactical phases of flight, demand–capacity imbalances still occur in flight, often manifesting as localised regions of high traffic complexity, known as hotspots. These hotspots emerge dynamically, leaving air traffic controllers with limited anticipation time and increased workload. This paper proposes a Machine Learning (ML) framework for the prediction and resolution of hotspots in congested en-route airspace up to an hour in advance. For hotspot prediction, the proposed framework integrates trajectory prediction, spatial clustering, and complexity assessment. The novelty lies in shifting complexity assessment from a sector-level perspective to the level of individual hotspots, whose complexity is quantified using a set of normalised, sector-relative metrics derived from historical data. For hotspot resolution, a Reinforcement Learning (RL) approach, based on Proximal Policy Optimisation (PPO) and a novel neural network architecture, is employed to act on airborne flights. Three single-clearance type agents—a speed agent, a flight-level agent, and a direct routing agent—and a multi-clearance type agent are trained and evaluated on thousands of historical hotspot scenarios. Results demonstrate the suitability of the proposed framework and show that hotspots are strongly seasonal and mainly occur along traffic routes. Furthermore, it is shown that RL agent performance tends to degrade with hotspot complexity in terms of certain performance metrics but remains the same, or even improves, in terms of others. The multi-clearance type agent solves the highest percentage of hotspots; however, the FL agent achieves the best overall performance.