Seasonality of pregnancies, births and marriages in Malta

Abstract

OBJECTIVES: Seasonality of births is almost universal, including in Malta, wherein for 1950-1996 there was a significant peak in marriages paralleled by a peak in births. This study was carried out to ascertain whether this has persisted and to identify potential deviations due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: Anonymous monthly data for 1999-2020 was obtained. This included First birth, First pregnancy (including miscarriages) and total marriages. Analyses were performed with unprocessed monthly time series and seasonally adjusted time series.

RESULTS: All series exhibited minor seasonal variation. Marriages peaked in June and September. First birth and First pregnancy series peaked in October and September, respectively. There was a positive correlation at lag - 11 months for First births with Marriages, and First pregnancies with Marriages and this was higher for Pregnancies than Births. There was a constant negative gap between the actual data and forecasted values for the three series from August 2020.

CONCLUSION: A higher average number of marriages leads to higher-than-average births 11 months after. The Maltese peaks are associated with month preference for marriage. Marriages, First births and First pregnancies in Malta dropped 72% 17% and 11% respectively during March-August 2020 (Marriages) and December 2020 (First births and First pregnancies) compared to the expected forecasted values, implying a negative impact that is temporally associated with the brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic.