Spatial distribution of illegal landfills in Poland

Abstract

PURPOSE: This study aims to assess and forecast the spatial distribution of illegal landfills at the county level in Poland in the years 2010-2023.

DESIGN/METHODOLOGY/APPROACH: We address the need for a more refined spatial understanding of the factors driving the distribution of illegal landfills in Poland from 2010 to 2023 by identifying spatial determinants and high-risk areas using spatial econometric models. We employed Spatial Lag Model [SLM], Spatial Error Model [SEM], and Spatial Lag of X [SLX] to assess impacts of socio-economic and environmental factors (e.g., population density, construction activity, forest cover, waste management costs) on landfill distribution. Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) were used to detect spatial clusters and outliers.

FINDINGS: The SLX model with forest cover and construction variables demonstrated the strongest global spatial fit (I Moran’s = 0.09543, p = 0.00181), while a classical linear model (LM) with only construction activity identified the highest number of local clusters (244 High– High and 136 Low–Low units).

PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS: Illegal landfills pose a significant threat to environmental sustainability and public health worldwide, and despite growing research, there is still a lack of analyses of the spatial distribution of illegal waste sites to inform policy. In Poland in 2022 and 2023 despite the removal of thousands of such sites annually, over 2,000 illegal landfills still exist.

ORIGINALITY/VALUE: The existence of spatial autocorrelation indicates that illegal waste dump distribution mainly depends on local conditions and the situation in neighboring districts. It provides evidence for the need to develop more effective policies to prevent the formation of such landfills.