Assessing climate variability and association with agricultural productivity in Malta (2000-2021)

Abstract

The Mediterranean Basin is among the regions most exposed to climate-related risks to agriculture, owing to the combined effects of warming, increasing hydroclimatic variability and water scarcity. Malta is particularly vulnerable because of its semi arid climate, limited land and freshwater resources, and substantial dependence on groundwater and supplementary irrigation. This study examines observed temperature and precipitation trends and their temporal association with agricultural production in Malta during 2000-2021, with an emphasis on the autumn-winter period that is critical for the establishment of major arable crops. Monthly temperature and precipitation observations were evaluated alongside national agricultural statistics for cereals, potatoes, tomatoes, vines and broader crop categories. The analysis indicates a general warming tendency during much of the autumn-winter period, with statistically significant increases in selected monthly maximum temperatures, particularly November and February, and widespread increases in minimum temperatures. Precipitation exhibited high interannual variability and declining tendencies during several months, notably November and December, although October and March showed different or weaker trajectories. These climatic changes occurred concurrently with substantial reductions in vegetable production and cultivated area for several crops, most notably potatoes and tomatoes. Correlation analyses identified associations between temperature or precipitation anomalies and selected crop indicators; however, these relationships should not be interpreted as causal because agricultural production is also strongly influenced by irrigation availability, market conditions, land-use change, technology, labour, policy and farm management. The findings nevertheless indicate increasing climatic exposure of Maltese agriculture and support adaptation based on improved water-use efficiency, rainwater harvesting and storage, soil-moisture conservation, climate-resilient cultivars, adjusted crop calendars, diversification and climate-informed agricultural advisory services. The study provides a national-scale baseline for subsequent crop- and farm-level analyses of climate risk in Malta.