Protecting the morphing coast : anticipatory governance with chronological digital twins

Abstract

Malta’s coastal systems are characterised by dynamic and episodic change, where long-term processes such as marine undercutting, fracture propagation, and material weakening are periodically accelerated by extreme weather events. Evidence from recent storm impacts shows how incremental geomorphological evolution can rapidly translate into structural failure, affecting infrastructure, public access, and coastal economies. These findings reinforce the understanding that coastal change is not linear, but driven by interactions between gradfual degradation and high-energy events, requiring continuous observation to identify emerging thresholds prior to manifesting as visible loss.

Advances in geospatial technologies, including LiDAR, UAV photogrammetry, and terrestrial scanning, enable a shift from static, two-dimensional representations of coastline retreat towards multi-dimensional, time-based analysis. By capturing and comparing high-resolution datasets across different time intervals, it becomes possible to detect volumetric change, structural displacement, and subsurface erosion processes that remain invisible through traditional monitoring methods. This approach demonstrates that coastal vulnerability is better understood through temporal and volumetric metrics rather than linear shoreline proxies, providing a more accurate basis for assessing instability and forecasting risk trajectories.

Within this context, the development of chronological digital twins emerges as a key framework for anticipatory coastal governance. By embedding repeated spatial capture within evolving digital environments, coastal systems can be monitored as living models that support scenario testing, risk assessment, and evidence-based decision-making. The integration of these datasets into immersive and interactive platforms further enhances analytical capacity, stakeholder engagement, and communication, enabling governance systems to transition from reactive responses to proactive, data-driven strategies aligned with the realities of climate-driven coastal change.