Southern instability, northern vulnerability : Libya’s challenge to European defence

Abstract

Attention in Europe remains fixed on the war in Ukraine and the transatlantic relationship. This focus, however, risks obscuring mounting challenges in North Africa, particularly Libya. Libya’s political fragmentation and unresolved state-building process have created conditions that Russia and China are exploiting to expand their influence across the Mediterranean, the Sahel and Sub-Saharan Africa. This article examines how Libya has become a strategic hub for Russian military activity and a platform for expanding Chinese economic and political engagement. It argues that these developments expose strategic incoherence and short-termism in EU and NATO policies, especially the emphasis on migration management over long-term stability, reconstruction and reconciliation. By analysing Libya’s internal dynamics and external alignments, the article highlights how continued Western disengagement risks entrenching instability, undermining Mediterranean security and allowing rival powers to reshape the regional balance of power to Europe’s detriment.