Analysis of changes in financial items of the Turkish banking sector with VAR model

Abstract

A restructuring program has been realized in the Turkish Banking Sector after the crises of 2000 and 2001. At the same time the restructuring program was implemented in the economy. Volatility is considered one of the most important risk indicator. The high volatility in a data set means that the risk is high. The aim of the study is to predict the strong changes in the main activity items of the banking sector from the post-crisis period to the present, based on the number of delays. During the period from the end of 2002 to the end of 2017, the volatility of the main financial items at the end of the three-month period has been analyzed in the Turkish Banking Sector. Afterwards, these main items were taken into consideration of past trends and predictive equations related to the levels that can be reached in the future were established. As a result of the analysis, it is seen that the highest change is primarily in the volume of the sector and in the loans and deposit items immediately afterwards. The high change in these two main factors in balance sheet naturally leads to a high volatility of the balance sheet total as well.