Direct and indirect drivers of change in biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people

Abstract

The major direct anthropogenic drivers – natural resource extraction, land-use change, pollution, climate change and invasive alien species – all strongly impact on biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people in Europe and Central Asia, posing substantial risks for nature and human well-being (well established) (4.2.1). Direct drivers act independently and in combination, amplifying and altering their context-specific individual and combined effects on biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people (well established) (4.2.3, 4.9.1). For example, the impacts of climate change are considerably exacerbated by adverse land-use changes. Direct drivers also impact each other through different feedback systems and alter driver trends (established but incomplete) (4.9.1). Indirect drivers – institutional, economic, demographic, cultural & religious and scientific & technological – interactively determine the trends and impacts of direct drivers (well established) (4.2.3). The belief that further GDP growth will facilitate sustainable development is a deeply rooted cultural driver, especially evident in Western and Central Europe, calling for smart, inclusive and sustainable growth. However, this requires an absolute decoupling between GDP growth and degradation of biodiversity and nature’s contributions to people which has not generally been observed (established but incomplete). Such decoupling is theoretically possible but would require a radical change in policies and tax reforms at the global and national levels (4.3.1, 4.3.2, 4.3.4). Domestic material consumption has increased in almost all European Union countries since the year 2000 (except for the economic contraction following the financial crisis in 2008), supported by growth-oriented policies (4.4.4.2). There is some evidence that human well-being does not increase further once a certain income threshold has been reached. Indeed, the sustainability challenge is to decouple quality of life (well-being) from environmental degradation and pay less attention to GDP (unresolved) (4.3.2, 4.3.4). Such decoupling would require new indicators on well-being, equity, environmental quality, biodiversity conservation and nature’s ability to contribute to people. Policies for resource efficiency have been implemented, but the tax system continues to impede recirculation and resource efficiency and hence transitions towards a “green economy”. For example, the total revenue from environmental taxes in the EU-28 in 2014 was only 2.5% of GDP, or 6.3% of the total revenues derived from all taxes and social contributions. These proportions have decreased since 2002, from 2.6% and 6.8%, respectively (well established) (4.3.2). Demography as an indirect driver varies significantly between the subregions, with a dramatic population decrease projected for Central Europe (established but incomplete). Urban development will continue to affect natural and semi-natural rural land in large parts of Europe and Central Asia. The population of Europe and Central Asia, 910 million, is stable, but a dramatic population decrease in Central Europe (excluding Turkey) is projected until 2050, from 123 to 104 million, due to currently low fertility rates and high emigration rates (4.3.3). On-going rapid urbanization as people move from rural areas into cities in Central and Eastern Europe and in Central Asia is fuelled by the deterioration of livelihoods in rural areas (4.3.3 and 4.5.6). The consequent urban development results in both urban sprawl and rural land abandonment. In Western Europe, urbanization occurs increasingly as people move from inland areas to coastal cities, which puts further pressure on estuaries and other coastal ecosystems (well established). There is a high potential for migration from Turkey and Central Asia to Eastern and Central Europe in the coming decades. Armed conflicts have profound effects on migration; for example, Turkey recently received (by March 2016) over 3 million refugees from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan. These large migrations may have important effects on other drivers of biodiversity change (established but incomplete) (4.3.3).