Potential future climatic conditions on tourists: A case study focusing on Malta and Venice
Information about a recent peer-reviewed publication on the potential future climate conditions on tourists can found at the following link. This research has been carried out by Dr Charles Galdies, Senior Lecturer at the Institute of Earth Systems, University of Malta.
Some of the research highlights:
- The observed increase rate in the mean temperature anomaly over Malta (by +1:1 C) and Venice (by +1:7 C) are linked to the larger regional and global impact originating from a warmer climate.
- The number of sub-hourly occurrences of bad visibility and adverse weather (such as thunderstorms, precipitation, etc.) were seen to decrease
- The level of comfort experienced by visiting tourists over the long term is deteriorating when it comes to the increased heat stress. However, the increased occurrence of optimal wind speed conditions and lack of gale storms, as well as a reduced occurrence of adverse wind chill events, are making these destinations more attractive.
- All bioclimatic indices used in this study show a deterioration in the degree of comfort, which is particular distinctive in Malta.
- IPCC climate model predictions show a signifi cant increase in maximum and minimum temperature over both locations.
- In the case of Malta, the peak tourist months are expected to experience an increase of around +1:9 C (by 2050) and by +2:0 C (by 2070) for July and +2:1 C (by 2050) and +2:2 C (by 2070) for August for the least harmful scenario (RCP2.6).
- The future human bioclimatic comfort index, based on the worst case scenario for 2070 (RCP8.5), is expected to reach critical conditions during the peak visiting months (July and August) at both destinations. This could imply a required shift, as a form of adaptation, of he visitation periods at these two destinations.
Abstract
The main purpose of this study is to quantify important climatic shifts that took place over Malta and Venice that could be considered as a determining factor on their choice as two prime tourist destinations. Rather than making use of traditional tourist climate indices, this study identifies long-term trends in weather variables and their derived bioclimatic indices. These climate derivatives are based on a set of high temporal observations (some of which are collected every 30 minutes) and are thus able to capture valuable information that traditional monthly distribution cannot provide. The derivatives obtained from the elementary meteorological observations showed that the level of comfort experienced by visiting tourists over the long term is deteriorating due to increased heat stress. Nonetheless, the increased occurrence of optimal wind speed conditions, as well as a reduced occurrence of gale storms and wind chill events is making these destinations more attractive. A careful study of the output of IPCC climate model projections sheds light on a critical future bioclimate condition during current peak visiting months (July and August) at both destinations. This may imply a required shift, as a form of adaptation, of the visiting periods at these two destinations. This study should allow tourist planners to determine which weather element is a likely future obstacle to the overall bioclimatic suitability of outdoor tourism activities.