Trainable filters for the identification of anomalies in cosmogenic isotope data

Abstract

Extreme bursts of radiation from space result in rapid increases in the concentration of radiocarbon in the atmosphere. Such rises, known as Miyake Events, can be detected through the measurement of radiocarbon in dendrochronological archives. The identification of Miyake Events is important because radiation impacts of this magnitude pose an existential threat to satellite communications and aeronautical avionics and may even be detrimental to human health. However, at present, radiocarbon measurements on tree-ring archives are generally only available at decadal resolution, which smooths out the effect of a possible radiation burst. The Miyake Events discovered so far, in tree-rings from the years 3372-3371 BCE, 774-775 CE, and 993-994 CE, have essentially been found by chance, but there may be more. In this paper, we use signal processing techniques, in particular COSFIRE, to train filters with data on annual changes in radiocarbon (Δ14C) around those dates. Then, we evaluate the trained filters and attempt to detect similar Miyake Events in the past. The method that we propose is promising, since it identifies the known Miyake Events at a relatively low false positive rate. Using the findings of this paper, we propose a list of 26 calendar years that our system persistently indicates are Miyake Event-like. We are currently examining a short-list of five of the newly identified dates and intend to perform single-year radiocarbon measurements over them. Signal processing techniques, such as COSFIRE filters, can be used as guidance tools since they are able to identify similar patterns of interest, even if they vary in time or in amplitude.