An evaluation of risk from sea level rise and storm surge on subpopulations of Brachytrupes megacephalus (Lefèbvre, 1827) on the island of Malta

Abstract

Brachytrupes megacephalus (Lefèbvre, 1827) is a relatively large gryllid with predominant but not exclusive distribution across northern Africa, favouring sandy habitats in coastal and Saharan hyper-arid regions. The crepuscular species is also known to occur in certain areas of Europe’s central Mediterranean littoral. The species’ distribution in the Maltese Islands is restricted to fragmented populations on northern coastal sites in Malta and one site in Gozo. The present contribution focuses on the vulnerability of the species’ habitat due to sea level rise and storm surges and estimates that habitat loss on the basis of three modelled inundation scenarios at 5 m, 10 m and 15 m contour heights would be 28.1%, 49.7% and 65.9% respectively. Furthermore, the models developed serve to provide insights for conservation management, specifically through elucidating the potential for linkages that ensure ecological connectivity for subpopulations on elevated terrain.